The Tour de France is back, thank god, it’s been a whole two days since the last great racing we had. With the return of the Tour comes predictions, speculation, rumour and guessing games of who will win the 2023 Tour de France. But why stab in the dark? Whether you go by consensus or bookmakers, there are clear favourites to win the famous yellow jersey and clear contenders to either challenge for that final podium spot or take their chance if top two don’t make it to Paris.
Going by order of the bookmakers’ consensus, we’ve considered every genuine contender who could feasibly win the general classification in the men’s Tour de France 2023 and assessed their chances. Consider it a stab in the light. Our own predictions will follow later this week.
Tour de France 2023 favourites
Barring incident, it’s between two men and always has been.
Jonas Vingegaard
The 2022 winner and the 2021 runner-up, Jumbo-Visma’s Jonas Vingegaard is now more than established, and this year’s Tour de France is considered his to lose. His display last year was emphatic, upsetting the defending champion Tadej Pogačar with an incredible display of climbing and time-trialling, and with the assistance of a pretty special team.
While he doesn’t have the early-season presence of Pogačar in the Classics, he was sure to let everyone know he’s still got it with a dominant performance at the Dauphiné.
Rating: 5/5
Tadej Pogačar
He is the Greatest of All Time and he doesn’t make the same mistake twice. The master of all trades seemed unbeatable until last year’s race and has a point to prove. Vingegaard doesn’t have Roglič to double-team an overly aggressive Pogačar into oblivion this time, so the Slovenian is already in a better position than he was in 2022 and he has a stronger UAE Team Emirates line-up to help him this time.
He was in imperious form earlier this season until he crashed out of Liège-Bastogne-Liège early, and with only the Slovenian National Championships to warm him back up before the Tour, that wrist could play a huge part in deciding his Tour de France fate.
Rating: 4/5
Tour de France 2023 outside bets
At the Tour de France – as with any bike race – anything can happen. We’ve seen plenty of pre-race favourites crash out early on in the past and with Pogačar already fighting off issues and Vingegaard coming close on a few occasions in 2022, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that neither man makes it to Paris. Who would take their place and who is fighting for that final podium spot should the two favourites hold on?
Jai Hindley
Tell someone at the start of 2022 that Jai Hindley had a very realistic chance of winning the Tour de France and you’d have been laughed out of town. And yet.
Hindley and Bora-Hansgrohe saw off serial Grand Tour contender Richard Carapaz and Ineos Grenaders at the 2022 Giro d’Italia, silencing any doubters over the legitimacy of the 2020 Giro that saw him lose out to Tao Geoghegan Hart on the final day.
He was controlled, confident and strong the whole race, biding his time until the final mountain stage, where he emphatically despatched of his Ecuadorian rival. If he can replicate – or better – that form in France he’s absolutely in with a shout, and the route suits him with few time-trial kilometres.
Rating: 3/5
Enric Mas
This is a case of the bookies getting sucked in to optimism. We’ve all been there. Enric always leaves you wanting más. He’s a solid GC rider that should be able to top-five, he had a really strong finish to the 2022 season but hasn’t shown anything so far in 2023.
Don’t get your hopes up, he won’t be gracing the podium in Paris and likely won’t even get his customary Vuelta a España podium for his Movistar sponsors this time around.
Rating: 2/5
Mattias Skjelmose
This one is a case of the bookies getting sucked into recent results. Lidl-Trek’s Mattias Skjelmose has had an excellent season, winning the Tour de Suisse and Danish National Championship Road Race title alongside an impressive second place at La Flèche Wallonne, but he truly is only just getting started at 22 years old.
He will come to challenge Grand Tour general classifications but there are more seasoned and capable riders here who will have the edge over three weeks. Expect a stage win and a challenge for the polka dot and white jerseys – the latter only if Pogačar falters – but not yellow this time around.
Rating: 1/5
David Gaudu
France’s latest nearly-man has taken on the hopes of cycling’s greatest nation after Romain Bardet decided to take his many talents to German outfit Team DSM-Firmenich. Groupama-FDJ’s David Gaudu took a huge step in his Tour de France quest in 2022, bagging a big fourth overall, much to the delight of Netflix, and he’ll be looking to go at least one better in 2023.
He didn’t ride well at the recent Dauphiné, but he put that down to over-training and did sandwich Pogačar and Vingegaard on the Paris-Nice podium in March. He’s most likely to benefit from one of the top two crashing out.
Oh no, there’s the hope.
Rating: 3/5
Richard Carapaz
For a minute, Richard Carapaz looked like the man to break the Tadej Pogačar and Primož Roglič domination. Alas, he hasn’t yet managed to add to his 2019 Giro d’Italia.
At a new team in EF Education-EasyPost for 2023 with Ineos Grenadiers turning to the youth, Carapaz looked set to challenge for a Tour de France podium, but his 2023 results have been terrible with his best GC performance 36th at the Dauphiné. Could he be holding something back? It’s unlikely.
Rating: 2/5
Adam Yates
A. Yates is Plan B at the Tour de France for UAE Team Emirates. In an ideal world he’s the Primož Roglič to Tadej Pogačar’s Jonas Vingegaard, with Yates and Pogačar teaming up to destroy their Danish rival’s little legs before team leadership takes hold and Pogačar rides into the distance for a third yellow jersey.
But should Pogačar’s wrist render him unable to do the business, Adam Yates will set about trying to win Britain’s first Tour de France since 2018. He’s in good shape, with wins and podiums this season, but he won’t be able to match a fit Vingegaard, so like everyone else he’ll need both favourites to be out of the race.
Rating: 3/5
Ben O’Connor
The other Australian, Ben O’Connor has a better Tour de France record than Hindley, but that’s mainly because Jai has never ridden the Tour before.
O’Connor valiantly fought his way to a breakout fourth overall in 2021 after joining AG2R-Citroën, and got his hopes destroyed by crashes early on in 2022. Rediscover that 2021 form and it could be Aussie v Aussie for third place.
Rating: 2/5
Simon Yates
Over on the only Australian team Jayco-AlUla the GC hope is British, Simon Yates won the Vuelta in 2018 and has come close to more than one Giro. Like his brother, he’s an incredibly talented climber, but inconsistent over three weeks and not on the level of our two favourites. If he doesn’t turn his attention to winning a stage or two, Simon v Adam could be another one for next year’s Netflix series.
Rating: 2/5
Who’s being overlooked?
It’s anyone’s guess how Ineos Grenadiers’ Egan Bernal will perform, but historically he’s the third wheel in this race.
Finally, no one is talking about Romain Bardet. I’ll leave that there.
Need to know what’s at stake? Read our guide to the Tour de France prize money.