Ever the showman, ever the history maker – Mathieu van der Poel is no stranger to defying the odds and leaving his mark within the pantheon of cycling history.
After a barnstorming victory last weekend at the Tour of Flanders, Van der Poel’s status as the reigning champion of cycling’s three most prestigious one-day titles – Flanders, Roubaix and the World Championships – places him on the cusp of greatness.
Despite a depleted startlist void of big cobble stars such as Wout van Aert and Jasper Stuyven, Van der Poel has to fight against rainbow curses, an unlucky nationality and statistical disadvantages to claim another Roubaix title this weekend.
Let’s brush the dust off the history books and dig deep into the archives to see whether historical and statistical patterns play into Mathieu’s hands, or whether he faces a Kopppenberg-esque uphill struggle.
Step 1: Win Paris-Roubaix back-to-back
Winning Paris-Roubaix once is hard enough, but Van der Poel is hungry for seconds. Previously 12 riders have triumphed in the Roubaix Velodrome in two successive years. Only six of these, however, have come in the post-war era. The most recent Paris-Roubaix repeat offence came from Belgium’s Tom Boonen 15 years ago with his wins in both 2008 and 2009.
Since then, the reigning champion has struggled to crack the podium. In fact, only Fabian Cancellara has made the podium as the reigning Roubaix champion in the past 15 years when he finished second and third in 2011 and 2014 respectively. More bleak is the average finishing position of Paris-Roubaix reigning champions since Boonen’s 2009 win, which sits at a poor 6.75.
However, we are long overdue a back-to-back Roubaix triumph. Since the 1930s there has never been a gap longer than 15 years between back-to-back Roubaix victories. Looking back on the history of this achievement, we can see that consecutive wins often come over a decade apart from one another. It has been a fair 15-year wait since our last back-to-back winner. If there’s ever a man for the job, it’s Mathieu van der Poel.
Step 2: Win Flanders and Roubaix in the same season
The Flanders-Roubaix double is the ultimate ace-high flush for any Classics contender. However, few have succeeded on both sides of the Franco-Belgian border within the same season.
This double whammy has been achieved 12 times, which means that 12.3% of Roubaix titles were won by the Tour of Flanders victor the week prior. From Henri Suter to Peter van Petegem and Roger de Vlaeminck, nine riders have claimed both trophies in the same season. Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara are the only riders to achieve this feat in the past 20 years, with Cancellara’s most recent cobbled Classic clean sweep coming in 2013.
However only two flags solemnly appear in this hall of honour: Belgium and Switzerland. If Van der Poel were to do the Ronde/Roubaix double this weekend, he would become the first representative from outside the two cobble powerhouses of Switzerland and Belgium to enter this elite club.
If we’re clutching at straws though, Mathieu van der Poel was born on the Belgian side of the border and has a distinctly Flemish accent when talking Dutch. He’ll be hoping this plays by the clubhouse rules.
In terms of recent results, the statistics are not in Van der Poel’s favour. Since 2013, the reigning Flanders champion has finished Paris-Roubaix in an average position of seventh place. Take a closer look at the results over the past decade and we can see that the reigning Flanders winner has never exceeded a bronze medal position in Paris-Roubaix. This came courtesy of both Niki Terpstra in 2018 and Fabian Cancellara in 2014. Mathieu will surely be betting on more than just a small cobble this weekend.
Step 3: Win Paris-Roubaix in the rainbow jersey
When looking towards the record of world champions in Roubaix, the trends look more favourable towards another MVDP exhibition on Sunday. That said, some sage may still need to be burned on the startline in Compiègne to combat the alleged ‘curse of the rainbow jersey’.
Trawling through the history books, a total of six world champions have won Paris-Roubaix, including the star-studded roll call of Francesco Moser, Bernard Hinault and a certain Belgian by the name of Eddy Merckx.
However it’s not all ancient history, we don’t have to look back too far to be reminded of a world-champion-turned-Paris-Roubaix-champion. This came back in 2018 when Peter Sagan claimed the Hell of the North title.
In all fairness, the rainbow jersey hasn’t competed in Paris-Roubaix since Sagan took the title in 2018. Mathieu will be hoping that the pot of gold at the end of the UCI-branded rainbow has been left at the Roubaix Velodrome.
Looking deeper into the archives, we can boldly claim that ‘the curse of the rainbow jersey’ seems to be lifted in the north-eastern corner of France. Remarkably the conversion rate of rainbow jersey wearers to podium finishes in the post-war era sits proudly at 59%. In that case it may be safe to place an each-way bet on Van der Poel to make the podium on Sunday.
The case studies
As unique as Mathieu van der Poel is, history is repeating itself here. Two riders have started L’Enfer du Nord with the same pressure on their rainbow-covered backs as the reigning Flanders and Roubaix champion.
Tom Boonen knew this all too well back in 2006. A week after claiming the Flanders title in his native Belgium, clad head-to-toe in a baggy 2000s-style rainbow outfit, Boonen claimed a bitter silver medal in Roubaix a year after he took the top-dog prize in 2005.
Rik van Looy, on the other hand, who hails from the same town as Wout van Aert, is the only rider to pull off this triumph. Back in 1962 Van Looy secured consecutive Roubaix titles, on the back of a Flanders triumph the week prior, all while wearing the rainbow jersey as road World Champion.
The verdict
Van der Poel has been showing no signs of letting up this spring, even if a Mads Pedersen overhaul in Wevelgem two weeks ago exposed a rare sign of weakness. The Alpecin-Deceuninck star has all the necessary experience to thrive on the unforgiving pavé. A stellar record in this race and a 66% podium conversion rate in Roubaix forecasts another Sunday of excellence for cycling’s very own Action Man toy. This is Mathieu van der Poel after all – he’ll do anything for the win.
Go behind the Sutros of Mathieu van der Poel with our 2019 profile: V is for victory!